O boletim de hoje da Merrill Lynch a seus clientes diz que no Brasil “todos os olhos” estão voltados para a pesquisa Datafolha, cujo campo termina amanhã (sexta-feira) e o resultado sai no jornal de sábado.
“Pouco significativamente importante aconteceu desde a realização do segundo turno”, informa a ML, um dos mais respeitados bancos de investimentos dos EUA. Além da pesquisa Datafolha, outro fato a considerado, segundo a corretora e banco de investimentos é o debate de domingo entre Lula e Alckmin, na TV Bandeirantes, às 20h.
Abaixo, a íntegra do comentário (sorry, only in English):
Brazil: All Eyes on New Datafolha Poll on Friday
Since the elections on Sunday, very little of significant importance has happened in terms of the presidential campaigns for the second round. Lula and Alckmin have both concentrated efforts on the search for endorsements by regional political figures and the candidates defeated in the first round. So far, Alckmin has received the formal support of the controversial Anthony Garotinho and his wife Rosinha, both former governors of the state of Rio de Janeiro (where Lula had 49.2% of the votes and Alckmin reached only 28.9%). Helosia Helena, who got 6.8% of the votes in the first round, in turn, declared that she would support neither candidate, while Cristovam Buarque (with 2.6% of votes) has yet to decide.
The next relevant event to watch should be the release on Friday night of Datafolha’s newest presidential poll. In the last survey (30 September), Lula and Alckmin had 49% and 44% of the votes, respectively. Also, on Sunday, Rede Bandeirantes will host, at 8:00pm (Brasilia), the first presidential debate between the two candidates.
In other news, a congressional commission submitted to the plenary a report containing a number of measures intended to “improve the minimum wage’s purchasing power.” Among them, the most “important” proposes the automatic increase of the real minimum wage by twice the growth rate of the real GDP of the previous year. This measure, if approved, would have a very negative effect on the fiscal accounts and impact adversely formal job creation. Ours sense, however, is that this is well understood by the majority of Congress, and, therefore, this politically motivated initiative is unlikely to see full approval.
Fernando Rodrigues
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